According to the seasonal forecast for the period from October to December, there is a probability of occurrence of normal rainfall, with a tendency to above normal, in the entire southern region and most of the central region . For some parts of the center and north, normal rains are expected with incidence in Nampula, Zambézia and Niassa. In the northern region, particularly across the entire length of Cabo Delgado province, northwest of Nampula and parts of Niassa province, normal rainfall with a tendency to below normal is expected. The data result from the assessment of climate experts from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries gathered at the 25th Annual Africa Regional Climate Forum (SARCOF-25), held virtually from Botswana, between days 30 to 31 August 2021, for the elaboration of the seasonal climate forecast of consensus for the rainy season 2021/2022 for the region. For Mozambique, the seasonal forecast was prepared using the sea surface temperature conditions (SST’s) prevailing during the month of July 2021 and also the prevailing and forecast atmospheric conditions for the periods under analysis. The projections of the dynamic and statistical models point towards el Nino neutral with tendencies towards la Nina. Taking into account the data under analysis, it is expected for the northern region, in particular for Cabo Delgado and Nampula provinces, a Crop Satisfaction Index below 60 percent and between 85 and 100 percent for Manica provinces , Sofala, Tete e in a small strip west of Zambézia. For the provinces of Gaza, Inhambane and Maputo, a High Crop Satisfaction Index is also expected between 85 and 100 percent. The forecast of the rainy season recommends for the southern region normal sowings with the use of both open-pollinated and hybrid short-cycle varieties (for maize such as ZM 523, Gema, Gogoma and Dimba); hybrid varieties (Olipa and PAN53) can also be used in the districts south of Maputo and in irrigated systems, including rice, sorghum and cowpea (timbawene IT 18, IT 16, IT 82E-16, IT 97K-1069-6 and IT). For the study of interpretation of the seasonal climate forecast for Agriculture, data from national stations with a climatic series of at least 30 years of precipitation record (due to the large interannual variability of this parameter) were used between October to December and January to March. ( FI) Source: Charter of Mozambique

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